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If ever a country needed a vote
of confidence, India did last week. A plunge in stocks listed on
Bombay's main market index continued, vaporizing some $87 billion
in investor wealth in just four days and raising doubts about the
sustainability of India's boom. But then came a spot of cheer: IBMwhich
already has 43,000 workers in Indiaannounced plans to invest
a further $6 billion there over
the next three years. IBM's commitment was a reminder that Indiaonce
shunned for its hapless protectionism, suffocating bureaucracy and
all-round commercial torporcan no longer be ignored. The country's
growth rate is now approaching that of Asia's other economic juggernaut,
China. And, as our special report in this issue shows, India is
being remade, as it is increasingly integrated with the global economy.
IBM is far from alone in its desire to tap the country's youthful,
technologically literate workforce. Multinational companies including
Nokia and Hyundai Motor have moved in, at the same time as India's
domestic success storiesamong them outsourcing giant Infosys
and the Tata group industrial conglomerateare shaking things
up around the world. Cities such as Bombay are buzzing with rude
health, while small-town India is changing so fast, former residents
can scarcely recall the rice fields now buried beneath shopping
malls.
IBM chief Palmisano in India, June:06
We've witnessed Asia's economic
tigers and dragons. Enter the elephant.
Yet India's stock-market slide
may be trying to tell us something: Elephant traps ahead. Prosperity
and progress haven't touched the 5,50,000 villages where two-thirds
of India's population live. In many ways, the country is growing
in spite of itself. Millions of women are not getting the education
they need. Transportation networks and electrical grids, which are
crucial to industrial development and job creation, are so dilapidated
it will take many years to modernize them. Businesses are less fettered
than they were when liberalization began 15 years ago, but some
parts of the economy remain subject to the old restrictions. "Right
now, India is like a runner without shoes," says Rakesh Jhunjhunwala,
a billionaire Bombay stock investor. "But look at that speed."
Speed is good, as long as you can go the distance.
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